Battle at Husky Stadium: Washington Takes on No. 10 Michigan in a Pivotal Big Ten Showdown; Week 6 Picks
Washington Huskies aim to defend home turf against the No. 10 Michigan Wolverines in a high-stakes Big Ten matchup—key players, betting odds, and game analysis.
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Washington vs. No. 10 Michigan
Date: Saturday - October 5, 2024, 4:30 p.m. PT
Location: Husky Stadium (Seattle, Wash.)
TV: NBC
Michigan Wolverines Overview
Record: 4-1, 2-0 (Big Ten)
Last week: 27-24 win vs. Minnesota
Conference: Big Ten
Coach: Sherrone Moore
Key Players:
Will Johnson (Jr.) Cornerback - At least one 2025 NFL mock draft has Johnson as the No. 3 overall pick. Johnson will likely draw the assignment of covering Washington wide receiver Denzel Boston. Johnson already has two pick sixes this season, including one in Michigan’s win against USC. The consensus Preseason All-American has tallied 11 tackles, one tackle for a loss, and three pass breakups to go along with his two interceptions.
Colston Loveland (Jr.) Tight End - Loveland is the sole returning starter on offense from last year’s National Championship Team. He is another NFL prospect on Michigan’s roster and like Johnson, is projected to be a first-round pick. Standing at 6-5, Loveland has hauled in 23 catches for 228 yards and one touchdown this season.
Kalel Mullings (Sr.) Running Back - Mullings has emerged as the top running back for Michigan. He has totaled 547 rushing yards for a 7-yard per carry average and six touchdowns. He’s ripped off three straight 100-yard rushing games with two touchdowns in each game. Against Minnesota last week, he tallied a career-high 24 carries, while rushing for 111 yards and two touchdowns.
Injury News
Washington
Defensive lineman Jayvon Parker is out for the season after tearing his Achilles in the Rutgers game.
Fisch is “optimistic” that edge Zach Durfee will play against Michigan. He may be a game-time decision.
Tight End Quentin Moore and wide receiver Kevin Green Jr. remain out.
Five Things to Know
Washington is favored in this game. Depending on your sportsbook of choice, Washington is the consensus favorite for Saturday’s game. ESPN Bet, FanDuel, and BetMGM all have Washington as 2.5-point favorites.
How is this possible with Michigan ranked as the No. 10 team in the country against an unranked Washington? A few things are at play.
First, both the data and the eyes test suggest that the Huskies are the superior team. Washington is one of only eight Power-4 programs that rank in the top 20 in both yards per play (7.22) and yards per play allowed (4.07). This puts them in the company of Texas, Alabama, Ohio State, Penn State, Miami, Indiana, and Tennessee. In other words, Washington’s offense and defense are playing at a high level. If you erase a few backbreaking mistakes that have occurred at the wrong time in the losses to Washington State and Rutgers, then Washington is 5-0 and surely a ranked team at this point.
Second, Michigan’s quarterback situation is in a precarious position. Quarterback Davis Warren started the team’s first three games before being replaced by Alex Orji. It’s no secret that Michigan does not throw the football, but its pass game does not look at all efficient with Orji under center. In Michigan’s win last week against Minnesota, Orji completed 10-of-18 passes for 86 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. The prior week, in his first start, Orji completed 7-of-12 passes for 32 yards and rushed 13 times for 43 yards.
Third, this is a home game for the Huskies, and the first road game for Michigan. The Huskies have the second-longest home win streak, with 17 consecutive home wins. Do you think Orji is completing many third-and-long passes in this environment? Maybe not enough for Michigan to be considered the favorite.
Matchup to watch: Washington’s Run Defense vs. Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards. Last week against Washington, Rutgers running back Kyle Monangai rushed for 132 yards on 25 carries and a touchdown, averaging 5.3 yards per carry. The worst-case scenario for Washington is Michigan jumping to an early 7-0 lead, bleeding clock with its run game, and then getting off to a 14-0 lead. The Huskies have to be able to regain possession, and that starts with just doing enough to force a punt.
Is it as simple as stacking the box to force Orji and the Michigan offense to pass the ball? Seems like it, but the effectiveness of Washington’s run defense is a question mark for me. Washington’s highest-graded rush defender against Rutgers, defensive lineman Jayvon Parker is out for the season with a torn achilles. It’s also unclear if, and how effective, edge Zach Durfee will play. And I haven’t even mentioned that linebacker Carson Bruener who is also banged up and will be playing through injury.
This is all to say, who will step up to stop the run on Saturday? Candidates include defensive lineman Sebastian Valdez, nose tackle Jacob Bandes, and defensive lineman Voi Tunuufi. The three starters received sub-70 rush defense grades on Pro Football Focus against Rutgers.
Can Grady Gross shake off a bad game? The way Washington offense has been performing, and considering that Michigan has a strong defense, it is likely Grady Gross will be kicking anywhere from three to four field goals in this game. He had four field goal attempts in both the Rutgers and WSU losses.
Last week was the worst game of Gross’ young career. His 1-for-4 mark is the first time he has ever missed more than one field goal in a game. With him missing a 50+ yarder against Northwestern, he is now 2-for-6 in the past two games.
Previous to the past two weeks, the worst run for Gross occurred in 2023 in Washington’s last three regular season games in November, where Gross went a collective 3-for-6 against Washington State, Oregon State, and Utah. After hitting the Apple Cup gamewinner, Gross then finished the season going a perfect 7-for-7 against Oregon, Texas, and Michigan. History suggests that Gross will bounce back, but more misses could lower Jedd Fisch’s confidence in the sophomore.
Jedd Fisch against ranked opponents. Washington Huskies head coach Jedd Fisch compiled a 6-7 record against ranked teams in his three seasons at Arizona. Last season, his Arizona squad notched victories over No. 19 Washington State, No. 11 Oregon State, No. 19 UCLA, No. 22 Utah, and No. 12 Oklahoma, while falling to No. 7 Washington and No. 9 USC by a combined 9 points.
As the AP rankings are currently set, five of Washington’s final seven games are against ranked teams: No. 10 Michigan, at Iowa, at No. 23 Indiana, No. 11 USC, at No. 7 Penn State, UCLA, and at No. 6 Oregon.
A rich history between Michigan and Washington. Unlike a good portion of the Big Ten, Washington shares a rich history against Michigan. Including last season’s National Championship game, the two teams have each beat each other in the Rose Bowl two times. Washington came away with wins in the 1977-78 and 1991-92 seasons, while Michigan notched Rose Bowl wins in the 1980-81 and 1992-93 seasons. This gives me an excuse to drop highlights from the 1991-92 Rose Bowl:
Washington’s Keys to Victory
Key 1: Force Michigan to Pass
Michigan quarterback Alex Orji has not exactly lit it up in the two games he has started since taking over starting duties from Davis Warren. In these two games, Orji has completed 17-of-30 passes for a paltry 118 yards. Michigan’s 27-24 win over Minnesota was despite Orji averaging 4.8 yards per pass and throwing an interception. This game could turn into a blowout for Washington if they can put Orji in the uncomfortable position of throwing more than 20 times.
How can Washington force Michigan to pass the ball? Huskies Defensive Coordinator Steve Belichick is probably going to load up the box to stop the run and dare the Wolverines to pass the ball. Whether actual stops will happen is wholly dependent on whether Washington’s run defense plays to its potential. Unlike Rutgers, Michigan’s lack of passing attack makes it even easier for Washington’s defense to load up the box without risking a big explosive pass play occurring.
The other thing Washington can do to force Michigan to pass is by getting out to a two-score lead. This gets me to my second key for the Huskies.
Key 2: Avoid the Backbreakers on Offense
I use the term backbreakers because it is not only penalties that kill momentum (which we saw plenty of in the Washington State and Rutgers games. Other things that kill momentum include things like a botched snap, a missed field goal, or failing to execute on third-and-short. These types of plays have occurred repeatedly throughout the season and have prevented an otherwise efficient and productive offense from scoring points.
Washington’s offense still has failed to score in its opening drive this season. Doing so against Michigan will require discipline from all players in the Husky offense.
Key 3: Unleash Giles Jackson
Top Michigan defensive back Will Johnson will likely cover quarterback Will Rogers’ number one target, wide receiver Denzel Boston. This means Rogers may have to rely upon his secondary target, wide receiver Giles Jackson. A former Wolverine for two seasons before transferring to Washington in 2021, Jackson had a breakout 162-yard, two-touchdown effort in the Huskies’ Apple Cup loss. Since then, Jackson has tallied lower receiving yard totals of 16 and 59 yards against Northwestern and Rutgers respectively.
The Huskies offense is at its best when it is making explosive plays. Jackson is one of the few Washington players that is a constant big-play threat. Against a suffocating Michigan defense, it will be interesting to see how Fisch deploys Jackson and whether he deliberately draws up plays that set Jackson up for potential explosives.
Prediction
This is a home game for the Huskies against a weak opposing quarterback. Orji is worse than both Washington State’s John Mateer and Rutgers’ Athan Kaliakmanis. Unlike the Husky defense against those two quarterbacks, I don’t think Michigan and Orji will be able to keep the Huskies’ defense honest. Washington will load the box and force Orji to move the football through the air. And I think Husky Stadium will be rocking. Washington will find ways to get in its own way, but it will be less frequent than the Rutgers game.
Spread: Washington is favored by 2.5 points.
The Pick: Washington 23, Michigan 20
Recruiting Corner
I have confirmed that the following Washington Huskies recruits will be at the game on Saturday. I have linked to sources below in instances where I have not personally confirmed a visitor:
2025 commit, athlete Deji Ajose (Bishop O’Dowd - Oakland, CA). Ajose committed to the Huskies in June.
2025 commit, running back Julian McMahan (Monte Vista - Danville, CA). McMahan committed to Washington in March.
2025 commit, linebacker Donovan Robinson (Loyola Academy - Wilmette, IL). Per his X account, Robinson will be in Seattle for the Michigan game. Robinson committed to the Huskies in June.
2025 wide receiver Jayden Mayberry (Lone Peak - American Fork, CA). Washington is showing interest in Mayberry. He also holds offers Washington State, Penn, Yale, and Dartmouth.
2025 safety Alexis Ruiz (Clackamas - Clackamas, OR). Ruiz is drawing interest from Washington. Per his X account, he’ll be at the Michigan game.
2026 linebacker Talanoa Ili (Orange Lutheran - Orange, CA). Per 247 sports, Ili is visiting Washington this weekend. He visited UCLA last week, and will head to Oregon and Oklahoma for visits following Washington.
2026 cornerback Justin Lewis (Rancho Cucamonga - Los Angeles, CA). Lewis holds offers from Washington, Colorado, and Arizona, among others.
2026 wide receiver Kenneth Moore III (Saint Mary’s - Stockton, CA). In addition to Washington, UCLA, Arizona, and a handful of other schools have offered Moore.
2026 athlete Terrance Saryon (Evergreen - Vancouver, WA). Per his X account, Saryon will be at the game this Saturday. Saryon also holds offers from the Big Ten’s Oregon and Illinois.
2026 offensive lineman Esun Tafa (Corner Canyon - Draper, Utah). Tafa holds several Big Ten scholarship offers from Washington, Oregon, and Michigan State.
2026 tight end Kai Wesley (Orem - Orem, Utah). Washington is showing interest in Wesley, who holds offers from Utah, Florida State, and Washington State, among others.
2026 safety Bralan Womack (Hartfield Academy - Flowood, MS). Per Rivals, Womack will be visiting Washington this weekend. Womack is considered to be the No. 1 safety in the 2026 class and including Washington, he holds offers from the likes of Alabama, Georgia, Notre Dame, and a handful of other schools.
2027 running back Honor Fa’alave-Johnson (Cathedral Catholic - San Diego, CA). Per his X account, Fa’alave-Johnson will be at the Michigan game. Fa’alave-Along with Washington, Johnson also holds offers from USC and Oregon, among others.
Week 6 Picks
2024 Record vs. the spread: 10-14
2024 Record, straight up: 20-5
Week 5 Record vs. the spread: 3-2
Week 5, straight up: 4-11
Week 6 reader guest picker: Kyle
Michigan State (3-2, 1-1) at No. 6 Oregon (4-0, 1-0) (Friday at 6 p.m., FOX)
The last time Michigan State head coach Jonathan Smith saw Oregon was in Eugene last November when the Ducks blasted Smith’s Oregon State team, 31-7. This second trip to Eugene won’t be kind to an inferior Michigan State team.
The spread: Oregon is favored by 24 points.
The pick: Oregon 44, Michigan State 14
Kyle’s pick: Oregon 42, Michigan State 7
No. 9 Missouri (4-0) at No. 25 Texas A&M (4-1) (Saturday at 9 a.m., ABC) - National
The Aggies have rolled to four straight victories after dropping their opener to Notre Dame. I’m giving Texas A&M the edge because this game is at home and the team is battle-tested.
The spread: Texas A&M is favored by 2 points.
The pick: Texas A&M 27, Missouri 24
Kyle’s pick: Texas A&M 28, Missouri 24
Rutgers (4-0, 1-0) at Nebraska (4-1, 1-1) (Saturday at 1 p.m., FS1)
Rutgers is coming off an emotionally-charged Friday night victory against Washington. Monongai is great, but the Huskers defense has only given up more than ten points against one opponent this season. Rutgers will score more than ten points, but not enough to win.
The spread: Nebraska is favored by 6.5 points.
The pick: Nebraska 24, Rutgers 21
Kyle’s pick: Rutgers 21, Nebraska 17
No. 11 USC (3-1, 1-1) at Minnesota (2-3, 0-2) (Saturday at 4:30 p.m., Big Ten Network)
This could be a trap game for the Trojans. Minnesota knows it can play with the big boys after narrowing losing to Michigan. I think USC’s offense will put up too many points on the board to lose.
The spread: USC is favored by 8 points.
The pick: USC 35, Minnesota 31
Kyle’s pick: USC 35, Minnesota 14
No. 8 Miami (5-0) at Cal (3-1)(Saturday at 7:30 p.m., ESPN) - WC
Are you aware of the Calgorithm? A cross-country matchup for a hyped-up Miami team seems like the recipe for an upset, but I don’t think Cal can do enough on offense to pull off the upset.
The spread: Miami is favored by 10 points.
The pick: Miami 27, Cal 20
Kyle’s pick: Miamo 50, Cal 9
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Week 5 guest picker James went 5-0 straight up, and 2-3 against the spread.
Your dedication is very admirable, Kevin