Huskies Enter the White Out: Can Washington Upset Penn State in Happy Valley?; Week 11 picks
Washington vs. Penn State: Keys to Victory, Top Players to Watch, and Predictions for Big Ten Showdown
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Washington at No. 6 Penn State
Date: Saturday - November 9, 2024, 5 p.m. PT
Location: Beaver Stadium (University Park, PA)
TV: Peacock
Penn State Nittany Lions Overview
Record: 7-1, 4-1 (Big Ten)
Last week: 20-13 loss vs. Ohio State
Conference: Big Ten
Coach: James Franklin
Key Players:
Drew Allar (Jr.) Quarterback - Allar has improved his passing accuracy this season, jumping from last season’s 59.9% completion percentage to 70.1% this season. The Penn State offense has not relied upon Allar the past two games, as he only logged 18 pass attempts (all in the first half) against Wisconsin and 20 pass attempts against Ohio State. Against USC, Allar threw for a career-high 391 yards, completing 30-of-43 passes and two touchdowns.
Tyler Warren (Sr.) Tight End - This is your player to watch. Warren is a Mackey Award semifinalist and has tallied 51 receptions for 606 yards and four touchdowns this season. He earned First-Team mid-season All-American honors from the Associated Press, CBS Sports, Pro Football Focus, and the Athletic. He ranks second among all FBS tight ends in receiving yards, receiving yards per game (75.8) and yards per reception (11.9).
Jaylen Reed (Sr.) Safety - Reed, an All-Big Ten honorable mention last season, leads Penn State’s defense with 50 total tackles. He’s had at least five tackles in his past three games and is key to stopping opposing rushing attacks, leading Penn State with 35 rushing tackles. He recorded three consecutive turnovers in three games against UCLA (strip-sack), USC (interception), and Wisconsin (pick-six).
Injury News
Penn State
Defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton was a full practice participant on Wednesday after only recording five snaps against Ohio State. He started in Penn State’s first seven games of the season.
Linebacker Keon Wylie was an active participant in practice for the first time this season.
Punt returner and wide receiver Kaden Saunders was an active participant in practice for the first time this month. He was in a walking boot in early October in Penn State’s game against UCLA.1
Washington
Tight end Quentin Moore is likely out for the season and may seek a seventh year of eligibility.
Offensive lineman Maximus McCree will not start, but will be available for emergency situations.2
Three Things to Know
Penn State may finally break through to the CFP. Since the College Football Playoff’s birth in 2014, Penn State has yet to qualify for a CFP berth. Meanwhile, conference rival Ohio State has qualified five times and Michigan has qualified three times. In that period, Penn State has played in a handful of marquee bowl games including two Rose Bowls, the Peach Bowl, and the Fiesta Bowl. With the expanded playoff, a single conference loss to Ohio State does not doom Penn State’s shot at qualifying for a CFP at-large bid. Including Washington, Penn State has no remaining games against ranked teams. Even if they do not qualify for the Big Ten Championship, they have a good chance at finally qualifying for the CFP.
Expect an electric atmosphere. The annual White Out at Penn State is a tradition that dates back to 2004. Five of Penn State’s Top 10 most-attended games have been White Outs. The team has won four consecutive White Outs dating back to 2019. Last year’s 2023 Penn State White Out attendance was 110,830, which was the fourth-largest crowd ever at Beaver Stadium. Husky Stadium’s capacity is 70,138, meaning Saturday night’s crowd could have more than 40,000 people than a packed Husky Stadium.
Matchup to watch: Washington’s secondary vs. Penn State’s receivers. Penn State writer
, identified Penn State’s receiving corps as its weakness in my Q&A with him yesterday. No wide receiver for the Nittany Lions averages more than 50 receiving yards per game. Besides tight end Tyler Warren, Harrison Wallace III is Allar’s second-most reliable target. Wallace averages 49.4 receiving yards per game and Pro Football Focus grades him as the 16th-best receiver in the Big Ten.Meanwhile, Washington’s secondary has been elite in coverage this season. The Huskies are No. 2 in FBS in passing yards allowed and No. 5 in pass-efficiency defense. Washington opponents are averaging 5.07 yards per pass attempt, which ranks No. 3 in FBS. Pro Football Focus ranks Washington as having the No. 11 best team coverage grade in all of FBS.
If Penn State can’t pass the ball against the Huskies, they should run the ball. Both Iowa and Indiana found success against Washington’s defense by running the ball. It will again be up to the Huskies’ defensive line and linebacker corps to keep the game close and get stops against Penn State.
Washington’s Keys to Victory
Key 1: Stop the run.
Penn State has a two-headed monster at running back. Junior Kaytron Allen will have the majority of the rushing attempts. He has 536 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 113 carries. Junior Nicholas Singleton has 498 yards and three touchdowns on 81 carries. Individually, neither Allen nor Singleton are putting up the same numbers as Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson or Rutgers’ Kyle Monangai, but the pair is leading the No. 11 best-graded rushing attack according to Pro Football Focus.
It is already well-documented that the Huskies have had a tough going at stopping opposing rushing attacks, especially on the road. In Washington’s past five games, the Huskies have given up at least 160 yards on the ground. On the road, Rutgers tagged the Huskies for 184 rushing yards, Iowa gashed them for 220 yards, and Indiana ran for 188 yards two weeks ago. With Penn State averaging 187.5 rushing yards per game, this game could be over by the third quarter for the Huskies.
Key 2: Get early points.
Washington has been outscored 51-20 in the first half of its road games. They’ve only managed a total of three points in the first quarter in these games. The offense consistently plays like a team is expected to play on the road: sloppy, inconsistent, and lethargic. Whether it’s failing to convert on third downs, suffering a dumb penalty, or stalling in the red zone, the Huskies have to somehow overcome all of these all-too-common mistakes and get early points on the scoreboard to put pressure on Penn State’s offense in the first half. Otherwise, Penn State can grab a lead and then play the field position and possession game to suffocate the Huskies.
Key 3: Generate turnovers.
As Husky fans saw last week, turnovers can make a huge difference in a football game. I know I’m being captain obvious here, but winning on the road is much more possible when a defense can generate extra possessions for an offense. I don’t think James Franklin will pull a Lincoln Riley and have Allar throw the ball 50 times, but I do think there’s a possibility that Allar tests the Washington secondary. And who knows, maybe Carson Bruener has a few more interceptions left in his tank.
Prediction
Watching that White Out video I embedded above kind of quashed any hope I had that the Huskies would pull off an upset. While this isn’t a 9 a.m. PT road game for the Huskies, they will have to enter one of the most hostile environments in all of college football against a team that is a little fired up after losing to one of its conference rivals last week.
Washington fans are just waiting for the one game where everything clicks. This does not seem like that game at all.
Spread: Penn State is favored by 13.5 points
The Pick: Penn State 26, Washington 14
Week 11 Picks
2024 Record vs. the spread: 24-25
2024 Record, straight up: 37-14
Week 10 Record vs. the spread: 4-1
Week 10, straight up: 4-1
Iowa (6-3, 4-2) at UCLA (3-5, 2-4) (Friday at 6 p.m., FOX)
The spread: Iowa is favored by 6.5 points.
The pick: Iowa 28, UCLA 27
No. 3 Georgia (7-1) at No. 16 Ole Miss (7-2) (Saturday at 12:30 p.m., ABC)
The spread: Georgia by 2.5 points.
The pick: Georgia 30, Ole Miss 24
Michigan (5-4, 3-3) at No. 8 Indiana (9-0, 6-0) (Saturday at 12:30 p.m., CBS)
The spread: Indiana is favored by 14.5 points.
The pick: Indiana 35, Michigan 20
Maryland (4-4, 1-4) at No. 1 Oregon (9-0, 6-0) (Saturday at 4 p.m., Big Ten Network)
The spread: Oregon is favored by 24.5 points.
The pick: Oregon 31, Maryland 14
No. 9 BYU (8-0) at Utah (4-4, 1-4) (Saturday at 7:15 p.m., ESPN)
The spread: BYU is favored by 3 points.
The pick: BYU 24, Utah 17
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Source: StateCollege.com.