Inside the Matchup: Alejandro Zuniga Breaks Down Michigan’s Chances in National Championship Rematch
Insight on Michigan's offense, key players, and what the Wolverines must do to defeat Washington in this Saturday's high-stakes rematch.
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I chatted with Alejandro Zuniga, reporter for The Michigan Insider, for this week’s opponent Q&A. Zuniga shared his thoughts on Michigan and the national championship rematch this Saturday.
KC: Washington Huskies fans last saw Michigan in January, and it wasn’t a pretty sight for them, as the Wolverines rushed for 303 yards. While we can expect Michigan to run the ball this Saturday, how good is this year’s offense compared to last year’s?
AZ: Not nearly as good, as the Wolverines lost 10 of the 11 starters from the CFP National Championship Game offense to the NFL. Most of the attention is on the quarterback position, where the difference between a top-10 Draft pick in J.J. McCarthy and a first-year starter in Alex Orji is vast, but most positions have taken a step back.
The Wolverines are still a run-first offense, but the balance is even more skewed in that direction given the newcomer at quarterback, an offensive line that struggles in pass protection, and receivers who don’t threaten a defense vertically as much as last year’s starters.
KC: What do you see as the biggest weakness of this team right now?
AZ: Broad strokes, it’s the pass offense, as Alex Orji has thrown for 118 total yards across his two starts against USC and Minnesota. (He replaced Davis Warren, who was benched after throwing three interceptions against Arkansas State.)
The passing struggles can be attributed to a lot of factors, but I’d say the biggest issues are: From a personnel perspective, Michigan has a right tackle in Evan Link who has really struggled in pass protection. He’s okay as a run blocker, and he’s just a redshirt freshman, so I expect him to round into a solid player over the course of his career, but right now he’s a liability in pass pro.
Orji himself was a ~50% passer in high school, and he doesn’t have the accuracy, touch or pocket presence necessary when confronted with a collapsing pocket and a crop of receivers who aren’t always getting open.
KC: Is there any chance senior quarterback Davis Warren wins back the starting job this season? How would you evaluate Alex Orji through two starts?
AZ: Possibly, but probably not. Davis Warren threw six interceptions across three starts, which is too many turnovers for a ball-control offense that typically isn’t going to score enough points to overcome multiple turnovers. And, because Alex Orji is such a different style of QB, presumably whatever packages the U-M coaching staff installs for him would have to be scrapped if Warren took back over.
Orji has grown through his two starts, but he’s still a below-average Big Ten QB. He did show some improvement against the Gophers, but that still resulted in an 86-yard passing day featuring a couple throws behind receivers and a bad interception on a play that featured two open targets downfield.
That said, he generally hasn’t put the ball in harm’s way, and I don’t believe Michigan is maximizing his potential as a running threat, so there are reasonable paths to improvement even if his passing doesn’t develop mid-season.
KC: Who do you peg as the team’s top individual performer so far this season?
AZ: It’s running back Kalel Mullings without question. He’s a converted linebacker who’s in his second year as a full-time offensive player, and he’s the reason Michigan is 4-1 right now instead of 2-3. He’s drawn positive comparisons to Hassan Haskins, who Washington fans might remember as the guy who ran for 155 rushing yards on 27 carries with a touchdown back in 2021. Both are big, physical backs with good vision and footwork, and while neither has top-end speed, Mullings has enough to create explosive plays.
Honorable mentions go to Mason Graham, who is living up to the hype as an elite DT; Dominic Zvada, who has matched the program record for field goals of 50+ yards in half a season; Josaiah Stewart, an undersized but dominant edge rusher; and Will Johnson, the former five-star cornerback who has two pick-sixes in four games.
KC: After a disappointing week 2 loss to Texas, Michigan has run off three straight victories, including a three-point win against USC. Does this team still feel like a CFP contender to you?
AZ: Probably not, given the aforementioned list of issues on the offensive side of the ball and a schedule that still includes Oregon, Ohio State, and tougher-than-anticipated games at Illinois and Indiana in addition to this Washington showdown.
I could see the Wolverines being in contention for a CFP spot for much of the year given their current top-10 ranking, poll inertia and the 12-team expansion. But even if they manage to sneak in, this probably isn’t a championship-caliber team like in 2022 and 2023.
KC: What are the keys for Michigan to win its first road game of the season against the Huskies?
AZ: Same as it always was: Sustained, clock-killing drives that result in points and let the elite defense stay fresh.
Limit turnovers, and create one or two through the fearsome defensive line.
Win the special teams battle with an excellent kicker.
Given that play style, it’s important that Michigan not fall behind by two-plus scores. The Wolverines simply aren’t built to come from behind. I know UW has suffered some injuries along its DL, so I’m curious to see how the offense fares against the backups, but I also fully expect Steve Belichick to load the box and try to force Alex Orji to beat them through the air.
It’ll be an interesting battle of strengths: Washington is top-30 in offense, has playmakers across the board on that side of the ball, and has moved the ball well even in the two losses.
The Wolverines will be their toughest challenge yet, but if the Huskies can limit those self-inflicted mistakes — penalties, missed field goals, the red zone issues — they could be in good shape.
KC: What's your prediction?
AZ: 24-20, Washington. First road environment of the year, a one-dimensional offense, and a Huskies team that looks a lot better on paper than its record suggests all portend poorly for the Wolverines.
You can follow Alejandros’s coverage of Michigan on X (@ByAZuniga) and at The Michigan Insider.
