Inside the Matchup: Chad Leistikow on the Iowa Hawkeyes and Saturday's Game Against Washington
Expert insights on Iowa vs. Washington: Chad Leistikow breaks down Iowa's strengths and weaknesses, and what it will take for the Hawkeyes to beat the Huskies.
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As the Washington Huskies prepare for their trip to Kinnick Stadium to face the Iowa Hawkeyes this Saturday, I connected with Chad Leistikow, Iowa Hawkeyes sports columnist for the Des Moines Register and Iowa City Press-Citizen.
Our conversation touched on Iowa's season, the strengths and weaknesses of the Hawkeyes, and his thoughts on what it will take for Iowa to pull off a win against Washington.
KC: Besides losing to an unranked (at the time) Iowa State team in week 2, has this season unfolded for Iowa in line with your expectations from the start of the season?
CL: After a 35-7 loss to Ohio State, itās safe to say a lot of Hawkeye fans hit meltdown mode. Many want Kirk Ferentz fired. They resoundingly want a quarterback not named Cade McNamara. But, man, that Ohio State team is really, really good. The frustration, I think, was in the way the second half in Columbus looked, with three second-half turnovers in a span of 10 snaps. But Iowa is 3-2 after playing arguably its two toughest games of the season, pretty much on track for its over/under win total set by Vegas at 7.5 or 8. In my preseason game-by-game predictions, I picked Iowa to finish 9-3 with two of those losses coming to ā¦ Iowa State and Ohio State. I always thought Iowa would start slowly with a new offensive coordinator and peak in November as the schedule weakened. So yes, with reflection, this season record-wise is going as expected.
KC: What do you see as the biggest weakness of this Iowa team right now?
CL:Ā The passing game has to be No. 1. McNamara has not topped 100 passing yards in any of his last five starts against power-conference teams, including 99 vs. Iowa State, 62 at Minnesota and 98 at Ohio State.
And now the Hawkeyes are down their No. 2 tight end in Addison Ostrenga, a big loss considering they go almost exclusively with ā12ā personnel. Iowaās starting receivers are a true freshman from small-town Iowa and a Northwestern transfer who had one reception in 2023. Despite the stats, the Hawkeyes are improving in the short passing game, but they desperately lack explosiveness, with no completion this year longer than 33 yards.
If we picked a No. 2 weakness, it would be the defenseās surprising vulnerability to big plays in the passing game.
KC: In last weekās loss to Ohio State, Iowa quarterback Cade McNamara threw an interception, lost two fumbles, and threw for less than 100 yards passing for the third time this season. Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz has not indicated at all that there will be a change at quarterback for the Hawkeyes. Whatās your evaluation of McNamaraās play through five games?
CL:Ā See question No. 2! Ha. McNamara does seem to have a good grasp of what offensive coordinator Tim Lester wants to do, and heās been OK as a game manager. But McNamaraās ceiling is very low, which is not what Iowa fans thought they were getting when he transferred from Michigan in late 2022. The guy has had two knee surgeries in the last two years and isnāt the same player he was in the maize and blue.
I am intrigued by what backup Brendan Sullivan could do, as he offers more as a run threat and led Iowaās only scoring drive at Ohio State. Youāll see Sullivan in goal-to-go situations for Iowa, and I wouldnāt be surprised if he gets sprinkled in more situationally as this season evolves.
McNamara could really use a good game to endear himself to the fan base, which universally seems to be fed up with him. But Iowaās best player on offense can make McNamaraās impact moot. Thatās running back Kaleb Johnson, who has 10 rushing TDs, including five scores from 25-plus yards out, and averages 7.9 yards per carry.
KC: Iowaās defense returns a handful of starters from last season, and it appears that the Hawkeyesā defense is Iowaās primary strength. Which individual players on defense have stood out to you this season?
CL:Ā Middle linebacker Jay Higgins (No. 34) is undersized but fun to watch. He is playing at an all-American level. He has been a dominant force with two interceptions, and his forced fumble and recovery at Ohio State kept Iowa in the game in the first half. Plus, heās a tackling machine.
The guy who wonāt show up on the stats but is equally dominant is 315-pound defensive tackle Yahya Black. He is assigned to consume two gaps on every play, and he also does a great job getting his long arms up in the quarterbackās passing lane.
One other guy to watch is cornerback Jermari Harris, a sixth-year senior who has two interceptions and is playing at an all-Big Ten level. Many other key figures on defense, though, have been pretty underwhelming to date.
KC: Iowa only has one ranked team (Nebraska) left on its schedule. If they get past Washington, do you think this team can run the table and get its name into the College Football Playoff conversation?
CL:Ā Even if Iowa runs the table, I donāt think 10-2 will be playoff-worthy unless it starts crushing teams on the scoreboard, Ohio State just trucks everybody else and Iowa State gets to the Big 12 Championship Game. But the question was, can Iowa run the table? Well, I do think this Washington game might be the toughest remaining test on the schedule, Nebraska included. Iām really impressed with the Huskies on both sides of the ball. I predicted 9-3 for this team, and I think 9-3 is still where this ends up. Can they go 10-2? Yes. Will they? No.
KC: What are the keys for Iowa to bounce back after a loss to Ohio State and get a win against Washington?
CL: Iowa under Kirk Ferentz has historically dominated the turnover margin, and that will be the key in this one, too. Washington is very careful with the ball, so itāll be a challenge. The Hawkeyes are also understanding theyāve yet to play a complete 60 minutes. Theyāve had at least one terrible quarter in every game this season. Playing four good quarters for the first time this year is imperative against a quality program like Washingtonās.
KC: What's your prediction?
CL: Iowa 23, Washington 20. The stats tell me Washington is the better team. My history covering this Hawkeye program tells me this is the type of game that Iowa finds an unconventional way to win. At home, against an opponent coming off a big win, playing at 9 a.m. body-clock time ā¦ the Hawkeyes might score on defense or special teams and squeeze this one out with a late Drew Stevens field goal.
You can follow Chad Leistikowās coverage of Iowa on X (@ChadLeistikow) and at HawkCentral.
