Seahawks Week 11 Preview: San Francisco 49ers
Will the Hawks be competitive following the bye? Will anyone else retire in the next 24 hours?
When asked during the bye week to assess the offensive line issues, specifically at right guard, head coach Mike Macdonald said: “It was it is”. When I was asked how I would evaluate the offensive line, specifically at right guard, I threw up in my mouth a little bit. So yeah, I did enjoy a Sunday without watching Seahawks football.
Now Seattle heads to San Francisco for a divisional match up and I wish it was another bye week instead. With a run defense that continues to struggle and now is missing two linebackers (one traded and one cut), Christian McCaffrey returns for the 49ers. With an offensive line that can’t block a stationary mannequin, Nick Bosa and his Trump dance are ready to dominate the Hawks. I wonder what else is happening on Sunday. Maybe I can put up my Christmas lights.
49ers Offense
Projected Starters (with PPF position rank)
QB Brock Purdy (8th/40 QB)
RB Christian McCaffrey
WR Deebo Samuel (19th/126 WR)
WR Ricky Pearsall
WR Jauan Jennings (6th/126 WR)
TE George Kittle (1st/71 TE)
LT Trent Williams (5th/76 T)
LG Aaron Banks (19th/77 G)
C Jake Brendel (22nd/38 C)
RG Dominick Puni (9th/77 G)
RT Colton McKivitz (32nd/76 T)
Trending Up
This is an easy one for the San Francisco 49ers. Christian McCaffrey returned from injured reserve in week 10 to record 56 snaps (out of 64 total). As Seahawk backers (and all NFL fans) know, McCaffrey is one of the most talented players in the league. Not only can he run the ball with effectiveness, he is even better as a receiver. McCaffrey will be heavily involved this week in his second game action of the season.
Trending Down
Let’s start with Deebo Samuel trying to fight the long snapper. After kicker Jake Moody missed his third field goal against Tampa Bay, Samuel reportedly told Moody to “lock it in”. Long snapper Taybor Pepper took exception to Samuel’s comment, but head coach Kyle Shanahan backed Samuel despite Deebo swinging at his teammate. (In fairness, long snappers are people too but they can’t do what Deebo can do). In addition to teammate battles, Samuel has not exploded for a big game in awhile. While Deebo’s numbers may seem fine for an average receiver, this man is a weapon. And simply hasn’t been playing like it for the past few weeks while battling injury. In 13 targets over the past two weeks, Samuel recorded four catches and five catches respectively. Maybe even more dangerous as a runner, Deebo only has 29 total rushing yards over the past two weeks.
One Thing to Watch
The Seattle Seahawks began the season with a revamped approach on defense led by two recently acquired starting linebackers in Jerome Baker and Tyrel Dodson. Well…the Hawks traded Baker away and recently cut Dodson while ranking 26th in rush defense (139 yards per game). With Ernest Jones and Tyrece Knight taking over the linebacker spots, will the Hawks be able to stop the 49ers rushing attack? History would say no. Look at this game log.
2024 - Mason 8.1 yards per carry, Guerendo 9.9 yards per carry
2023 - McCaffrey 6.0 yards per carry, Mitchell 5.6 yards per carry
2023 - McCaffrey 9.1 yards per carry, Mason 5.0 yards per carry
2022 Playoff Game - McCaffrey 7.9 yards per carry
That isn’t just bad, that is historically terrible. The Hawks will have to limit the San Francisco run game to give themselves a chance in this one.
49ers Defense
Projected Starters (with PPF position rank)
DE Nick Bosa (5th/112 DE)
DT Maliek Collins (61st/120 DL)
DT Jordan Elliott (54th/120 DL)
DE Leonard Floyd (96th/112 DE)
OLB De’Vondre Campbell (68th/83 LB)
LB Fred Warner (1st/83 LB)
OLB Dee Winters
CB Renardo Green (3rd/109 CB)
S Malik Mustapha (38th/107 S)
S Ji’Ayir Brown (45th/87 S)
CB Demmodore Lenoir (42nd/109 CB)
Trending Up
While Deommodore Lenoir signed a $88.8 million contract extension this week, it is the third 49ers corner who is shining lately. Overshadowed early on by Charvarius Ward and Lenoir, rookie Renardo Green wasn’t getting a lot of snaps until week six against Seattle. Now Green, is clearly the third corner and thriving. In their past two games against Dallas and Tampa Bay, Green has received the highest score from Pro Football Focus on a team of talented defensive players. Green allowed four catches for 17 yards against the Bucs and will be tasked with a tough assignment as DK Metcalf returns for the Hawks. Seattle is one of the only teams with three legit wide receivers and thus Green will be tested early.
Trending Down
Leonard Floyd used to be an absolute menace. Floyd recorded a sack in two of his last three games with the Rams against Seattle, but the 32 year old has struggled recently with the 49ers. Floyd recorded a 46.9 defensive grade last week and had no hurries versus Tampa Bay. The week before, Floyd recorded a 53.3 defensive grade against Dallas but did have two hurries in that match up. While the 49ers have plenty of pass rushers, Floyd is not who the Hawks need to worry about this week.
One Thing to Watch
While the running game is important, giving Geno Smith time to throw is even more crucial in this match up. If Geno is getting hurried and knocked down consistently, there is no way the Hawks win. Geno Smith has been sacked the fifth most times in the league this year and experienced the sixth most hurries. With center Connor Williams abruptly retiring mid-week, the Hawks are in trouble. Hopefully Abraham Lucas returns this week so they at least have a shot at limiting Bosa and company. Last time Seattle faced San Francisco, Bosa had 9 hurries and the team had 20 total. Considering the explosive 49ers offense, the Hawks will need to throw the game to keep pace. To throw the ball, the Seahawks will need to give Geno time in the pocket.
Prediction
This will not be pretty. There really is no reason to believe the Seahawks can go into Santa Clara and pull out a win. Shoot, I don’t think they can keep it close.
Seahawks 20, 49ers 37 (-6.5)
NFL Picks
Record through ten weeks (including Hawks predictions): 24-19-4 (wins-losses-push)
The last time I made picks, we finished 3-3. After a two week hiatus due to work and the Hawks bye week, we are back. Time to make that bread.
Rams (-4.5) at Patriots
This is my favorite pick of the week. While the Rams are hard to predict, the NFL is a week to week league. The Patriots had a big win last week but aren’t a good team. The Rams had a disappointing loss last week but are a pretty solid team. The Rams are going to win this game by 10+ points.
Raiders at Dolphins (-7)
The Dolphins are going to get rolling here with Tua back at quarterback. The Raiders are turning to Gardner Minshew again and I just don’t see that working out.
Packers (-5.5) at Bears
As long as Matt Eberfluss is the head coach, I am picking against the Bears. It doesn’t matter that they relieved Shane Waldron of his duties, they are still starting a rookie QB and the Packers have a much better team (plus coach).
Chiefs at Bills (-2)
The Chiefs luck finally runs out against a really good team. Kansas City should not be undefeated and the Bills might be the best team in the NFL. Give me the home team by at least a field goal. (I think Buffalo could win this by two touchdowns).
Ravens (-3) at Steelers
I don’t like picking against Mike Tomlin but I just can’t see Russell Wilson pulling off a win here. I think the Ravens assert their dominance in the division in this one.