Seahawks Week 12 Preview: Arizona Cardinals

Will the Hawks be able to limit Kyler Murray while keeping their own offense rolling?

All of a sudden, this is a big game in the race for NFC West supremacy. The Hawks pulled off a victory last week that no one saw coming with a 20-17 win over the San Francisco 49ers. Now, Seattle sits just one game out of first place with the Arizona Cardinals right in front of them. The next three weeks will likely determine the fate of Seattle in 2024 as the Hawks face the Cards twice in that span.

While the Cardinals have won four in a row, it is hard to tell how good they are just yet. Pro Football Focus does not grade many of their defenders as even league average, yet Arizona has limited Aaron Rodgers and Caleb Williams in back-to-back weeks. At the same time, Aaron Rodgers and Caleb Williams might not be good right now. Will the Hawks be able to keep their momentum at home?

Cards Offense

Projected Starters (with PPF position rank)

QB Kyler Murray (8th/38 QB)
RB James Conner (7th/64 HB)
WR Marvin Harrison, Jr. (21st/128 WR)
WR Michael Wilson (76th/128 WR)
WR Greg Dortch (92nd/128 WR)
TE Trey McBride (3rd/77 TE)
LT Paris Johnson, Jr. (13th/77 T)
LG Evan Brown (25th/77 G)
C Hjalte Froholdt (6th/39 C)
RG Trystan Colon (18th/77 G)
RT Jonah Williams

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Fantasy owners knew Trey McBride in August. Everyone else should know Trey McBride now. Early in the season, McBride was getting the targets but his catches were closer to the line of scrimmage. Over the past five games, McBride has been stretching the field with yards per catch of 17.8, 11.7, 13.8, 10.2 and 12.0 respectively. McBride is a matchup nightmare and will be really hard for the Hawks to stop. Over the course of the season, McBride is tied for the third most catches among all tight ends and stands in third alone in receiving yards.

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The Cardinals may not have an issue on the offensive line as glaring as the Seahawks, but they have trouble running the ball at times. In particular, right tackle Kelvin Beachum is struggling. In the last four games, his run block grades are 51.7, 56.4, 53.1 and 47.7, which puts him in Anthony Bradford territory. While the Cards wild on the Bears two weeks ago, they struggled against Miami and were ok against the Jets. With a combination of Trey Benson and James Conner, it is certainly possible that the Cards run the ball effectively against the Hawks. However, it is worth watching early to see if Arizona establishes the run or is content to target Marvin Harrison, Jr. and Trey McBride.

One Thing to Watch

It is always worth watching Kyler Murray. The Hawks tend to struggle against scrambling quarterbacks and Murray runs can crush the spirit. If Seattle is able to close down passing game options and do a decent job against the run, they will need to keep an eye on Murray. In Kyler Murray’s last four games against the Hawks, he has averaged 6.6 yards per carry or better in each matchup. In 2022, Murray was especially difficult as he rushed for 100 yards in one game and 60 yards in the other. While Kyler Murray hasn’t scrambled much in the past two weeks, if the Cards need a big play, expect the Arizona QB to trust his legs.

Cards Defense

Projected Starters (with PPF position rank)

DL Dante Stills (74th/116 DL)
DL Roy Lopez (82nd/116 DL)
DL L.J. Collier (93rd/116 DL)
OLB Zaven Collins (36th/114 ED)
LB Mack Wilson Sr. (28th/82 LB)
LB Kyzir White (73rd/82 LB)
OLB Baron Browning (62nd/114 ED)
CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (96th/112 CB)
S Budda Baker (12th/89 S)
S Dadrion Taylor-Demerson
CB Starling Thomas V (73rd/112 CB)

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Anyone who has followed football in Washington state in the past 15 years knows the name Budda Baker. A star at Bellevue High School, Baker went on to play for the University of Washington. As a professional in Arizona, Baker has twice been named first team All-Pro and earned one second team All-Pro recognition. Needless to say, Baker has been quite good for some time. Even in his eighth year, Baker is still improving. For a defense that lacks impact players, Baker still makes plays. He had a tremendous game against the New York Jets with seven tackles, a sack, and five “stops” (PFF’s metric that values tackles that create a failure for the opposing offense). The Hawks would do well to stay away from Baker as much as possible.

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The Arizona Cardinals have a defensive line problem. Out of 116 defensive linemen given grades by Pro Football Focus, all three Cardinals starters are ranked 74th or worse. Despite a big victory over New York, the Cardinals allowed Breece Hall to average 5.2 yards per carry (on only 10 rushes). In particular, old Seahawk friend LJ Collier has struggled this year. In only one game (against Chicago), did Collier put up an average or above average performance. With Arizona only blitzing 18.9% of the time (5th lowest in the league), Collier and others will need to improve for Arizona to keep rolling. There is an opportunity in this game for Seattle’s offensive line to actually look effective.

One Thing to Watch

The Seahawks are a passing team, whether we want them to be or not. The Cardinals do a nice job overall against passing attacks, but especially in the past three games. Over the last three weeks (against the Jets, Bears and Dolphins), Arizona has allowed just 175.7 yards per game through the air (3rd best in the NFL). Seattle has the second best passing attack in the NFL, and with the return of DK Metcalf, looks dangerous again. While it would be awesome to see Kenneth Walker III have a 100 yard game, the most likely scenario is the Hawks winning matchups in the secondary and getting the ball in the hands of Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Prediction

The Hawks are back baby! While the Cards have won four in a row, Seattle is in a nice position to grab first place away from Arizona on Sunday.

Seahawks 27 (+1), Cardinals 21

NFL Picks

Record through ten weeks (including Hawks predictions): 27-22-4 (wins-losses-push)

Another 3-3 week because I had no faith in the Seahawks. Will I get burned this week by Seattle? Probably. Onto the rest of the picks!

Broncos (-4.5) at Raiders

Bo Nix is cookin’ lately and the 26 year old rookie won’t stop when he goes to Vegas. The Raiders are a mess and the Broncos keep rolling here.

Cowboys (+11) at Commanders

This is not an endorsement of the Dallas Cowboys. Eleven points is simply too many to give to a rookie quarterback.

Lions (-7) at Colts

The Lions are the best team in the NFL right now and just put up seven touchdowns on their first seven possessions last week. The Goff train keeps rolling on the road.

Bucs at Giants (+6)

Danny DeVito time! Don’t throw the Giants from the train! I think the Giants rally around the new QB and cover this spread, if not win out right.

Eagles (-3) at Rams

I just want to root against the Rams for the sake of the Seahawks. Plus the Eagles are pretty good.