Seahawks Week 8 Preview: Buffalo Bills
Can the Hawks find a way to limit Josh Allen?
Search “Bills-Seahawks predictions” and you are sure to find a lot of NFL writers and sites predicting a Bills victory. In fact, NBC sports, all four USA today experts, and all five Sporting News experts predict a Buffalo win. I have yet to find an expert forecasting a Seattle victory, even though the game is at Lumen Field. So is this a hopeless cause? Should we just watch Nobody Wants This on Netflix instead?
While the Hawks have a challenge on their hands, the performance in Atlanta should give Seattle fans some reason for optimism. Not only did the Hawks get some key players back on defense, but they also made a couple trades that could help the run defense improve. The additions of Roy Robertson-Harris and Ernest Jones should make an immediate impact. It may not be enough to overcome Josh Allen and the Bills offense, but the only way you will know is by reading the rest of this preview.
Bills Offense
Projected Starters (with PPF position rank)
QB Josh Allen (8th/38 QB)
RB James Cook (20th/61 RB)
WR Keon Coleman (47th/126 WR)
WR Amari Cooper (54th/126 WR)
WR Khalil Shakir (23th/126 WR)
TE Dalton Kincaid (10th/73 TE)
LT Dion Dawkins (43rd/76 T)
LG David Edwards (35th/80 G)
C Connor McGovern (13th/38 C)
RG O’Cyrus Torrence (63th/80 G)
RT Spencer Brown (48th/76 T)
In the Trenches
The Bills are pretty fascinating when it comes to the offensive line of scrimmage. Buffalo ranks 5th in rushing, according to Pro Football Focus, but their run blocking ranks 24th. How much of this is because of Josh Allen? It is hard to tell. Aside from Connor McGovern at center, no members of the offensive line are having exceptional seasons. This would explain why most of James Cook’s success comes rushing up the middle. With Byron Murphy back, and the addition of Roy Robertson-Harris and Ernest Jones, it seems that the Hawks could limit Cook in this match up. However, Ray Davis has been the more explosive back for the Bills and will likely see about 50% of the carries. Seattle also improved their pass rush last week with 12 hurries against Kirk Cousins. They will need win the line of scrimmage in multiple ways this week, including rushing Josh Allen, while keeping him contained in the pocket.
Bills Playmakers
While the Bills have playmakers at receiver and running back, the real threat to any opposing defense is quarterback Josh Allen. It is nearly impossible to compare Allen to any other signal caller in the league with his ability to throw the ball down the field and his toughness running the ball. Allen is the best dual-threat QB in the NFL. Against the Tennessee Titans last week, Allen threw for 323 yards and two touchdowns. While that was his first 300+ yard game of the season, Allen has thrown for 12 TDs and no interceptions on the season. This is remarkable for the Bills QB considering he was second worst in the NFL in 2023 with 18 interceptions. Allen’s talent slinging the rock is scary, but his running ability frightens me more. In 2023, Allen had 18 rushing touchdowns including the playoffs. The Hawks have to find a way to make Allen feel rushed without letting him escape the pocket too many times.
Matchups to Watch
When the Bills traded for Amari Cooper, their passing attack took on a new look and became immediately more threatening. With Cooper, rookie WR Keon Coleman, WR Khalil Shakir and tight ends Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid, the Bills have so many options for Josh Allen. Since the Seahawks are looking at another week without cornerback Tre Brown and safety Rayshawn Jenkins, there will be more pressure on the secondary again. Hopefully, Riq Woolen will be back but Seattle will be under immense pressure. While the run defense has been awful for three weeks, the match ups to watch are clearly on the back end. Woolen, Devon Witherspoon and others have to win more 1 on 1’s than they lose to give Seattle a chance.
Bills Defense
Projected Starters (with PPF position rank)
DE Greg Rousseau (13th/111 DE)
NT Daquan Jones (29th/119 DL)
DT Ed Oliver (47th/119 DL)
DE A.J. Epenesa (62nd/111 DE)
LB Dorian Williams (40th/83 LB)
LB Baylon Spector (82nd/83 LB)
NB Taron Johnson (58th/106 CB)
CB Christian Benford (13th/106 CB)
S Damar Hamlin (45th/85 S)
S Taylor Rapp (46th/85 S)
CB Rasul Douglas (58th/106 CB)
In the Trenches
Despite having the 24th ranked run defense according to PFF, most of the defensive talent for the Bills lives on the line. Between Ed Oliver, Greg Rousseau and AJ Epenesa, the Bills have the pedigree. Oliver and Rousseau were drafted in the first round and Epenesa was a second round pick. Their talent really shines on passing downs as the Bills have the 6th best pass rush in the league. In week 7, Buffalo had 13 quarterback hurries and four sacks against the Titans. Now they face a passing attack in Seattle that ranks first in the NFL in passing yards and a rushing attack that is dynamic when Kenneth Walker III is healthy. They often say that games are won in the trenches, but keeping Geno upright and on pace with Josh Allen might be the biggest key in this match up.
Bills Playmakers
The Bills rank 7th in the NFL in takeaways with 12 overall and are clearly making plays to give their offense more opportunities. Damar Hamlin is the feel good story on this defense as he leads Buffalo with two interceptions and five passes defended. However, Hamlin’s coverage grade is 88th among safeties. I guess that is the definition of playmaker. When Hamlin gets an opportunity, he makes a big play. This fits the entire defense actually as they rank 29th in coverage, but will turn a team over. The Hawks will need to win the turnover battle on Sunday.
Match ups to Watch
It is hard not to pick the trio of Tyler Lockett, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and DK Metcalf against any secondary as the match ups to watch. Especially with the Seahawks throwing as much as they do. However, the return of Kenneth Walker III and the need for a successful running game by Seattle has my attention at the line of scrimmage. Can the interior of Anthony Bradford, Laken Tomlinson, and Christian Haynes create enough of a crease to allow Walker to attack the Bills subpar linebackers? Will Mike Jerrell hold his own again on the right side to give Walker a chance to break a couple long runs? The Hawks running game is my area of focus this week against the Bills front seven.
Prediction
It feels like a difficult task for the Seahawks to pull out this win. The Bills are good and the Seahawks are maybe good. Let’s hedge our bet and go for the cover.
Seahawks 31 (+3), Bills 33
NFL Picks
Record through seven weeks (including Hawks predictions): 21-16-4 (wins-losses-push)
In addition to predicting the Seahawks result each week, I will pick five more NFL games for your reading pleasure. Last week, I went 4-2 in picks and somehow this isn’t reflected in my bank account.
Colts at Texans (-5)
As long as the Colts are starting Anthony Richardson, I am picking against them when they face a good team. Richardson is 37th out of 38 quarterbacks according to PFF and was 10 for 24 last week. The Texans are good and at home. They win by two scores.
Bears at Commanders (+3)
The Bears have been feasting on bad teams and bad defenses in compiling a 4-2 record. The Commanders, even without Jayden Daniels, shouldn’t be getting three points at home. Dan Quinn has Washington rolling.
Packers (-4) at Jaguars
The Jaguars are not good at football. They might be good at other things, but they are not good at football. Matt LaFleur is a really good head coach and Doug Pederson also coaches. Go Pack Go.
Browns (+8.5) at Ravens
With Deshaun Watson being out, the Browns benefit from the replacement QB boost. Add in that the QB is Jameis Winston and now we have a party. The Ravens are much better than the Browns but Cleveland is well coached and 8.5 is a lot to cover in the NFL.
Saints at Chargers (-7)
I really shouldn’t be giving seven points with the limitations of the Chargers offense, but the Saints are historically bad right now. It is possible that the Saints only score 10 points and the Chargers put up like 24. That would do it and no one would be watching.