SeaTown Sports Mailbag - Top 100 ranking debates, Mariners frustrations, and Jedd Fisch
Answering questions from our readers about the SeaTown Sports Top 100, Jedd Fisch’s Future at UW, and NFL Training Camp Updates on Huskies Draftees
Welcome to the SeaTown Sports mailbag! We received great questions this week, and we're diving into everything from how long Jedd Fisch will be at UW to our tough calls in the SeaTown Sports 100.
Thanks to all who submitted questions. Have a question for our next mailbag? Drop us a comment here, send us a tweet on X @SeaTownKev or @seatownels, or on Instagram @seatownsports_official.
Questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity.
Who or what surprised you the most when you were ranking the top 100 Seattle professional athletes? - Jackson C.
Cacabelos: We haven’t released the the Top 20 yet, but Brian and I went back and forth a few times on properly ranking the cream of the crop. I think any well-versed Seattle sports fans could get the “who” in the Top 20, but the “where” might be a little more difficult.
As to not give anything away, how about the tough calls in the 100-41 range? There were several tough calls, and they had a common theme: how do we compare one athlete that had a short run of success in Seattle to an athlete that had a long run of mediocre success in Seattle?
A good example is #55 Nelson Cruz versus #45 Jay Buhner. Nelson Cruz only spent four seasons in Seattle, but made three All-Star teams and won two Silver Slugger awards, Buhner on the other hand only made one All-Star team and earned one gold glove in the entirety of his 14 seasons in Seattle. We ultimately have Buhner ranked ahead of Cruz because of the 14 seasons of sustained excellence. We think that longevity, to an extent, counts for something, but we were always balancing this with short bursts of success.
The other tough calls were related to comparing athletes across positions, sports, leagues, and eras.
For example, we have new Mariners manager Dan Wilson at No. 51. He’s a Mariners Hall of Famer and the consensus best catcher in Mariners history.1 Above him, we have Bob Rule of the Sonics at No. 50. I bet that before our SeaTown Sports 100, most people had no idea who Bob Rule is and what he accomplished in Seattle. He’s not regularly talked about as one of the best Sonics of all-time. How can we justify ranking him above the beloved Dan Wilson? We had to weigh the stats and the accomplishments. Rule’s three seasons as a Sonic were absolutely ridiculous. On the other hand, we couldn’t find one season where Wilson absolutely lit it up at the plate. There will be more debates to come as we get into the Top 40.
P.S. If you haven’t read any of the Top 100, here’s the latest drop from earlier this week:
How are the recently drafted Washington Huskies doing in NFL training camp? - Dom
Cacabelos: Most people are still confused why the Atlanta Falcons drafted Michael Penix Jr. at eighth overall in the NFL draft because prior to the draft, the Falcons had signed Kirk Cousins to a large contract. And now, the Falcons have confusingly sat Penix Jr. in its second preseason game, and plan to do so this weekend. All of this indicates the Falcons want to protect Penix and that he may see some game action in the regular season, depending on Cousins’ recovery from injury. Mike Florio speculated earlier this week that the Falcons have an excuse to start Penix, who impressed during his the Falcons’ preseason opener:
Usually, it’s impossible to roll with a first-round rookie and then bench him if/when he struggles. It’s very hard to bench the young player without cratering his confidence. In Atlanta, however, the Falcons could decide Cousins needs a little more time to recover from his torn Achilles tendon, and that Penix will play as Cousins finishes the climb back to 100 percent.
This would allow them to start the season with Penix. If/when he struggles, Cousins would suddenly be good to go. If Penix plays well, the Falcons can let him keep playing.
It’s perfect cover for giving Penix a trial run. And it’s a possible explanation for not letting him play in the second or third preseason game.
Unsurprisingly, wide receiver Rome Odunze is having an impressive training camp with the Chicago Bears. He is adjusting well with receiving passes from number one overall pick Caleb Williams. The former USC quarterback said that he intends for his connection with Odunze to be “explosive.” NFL analyst Chris Simms thinks Odunze will be Williams’ No. 2 option behind D.J. Moore — which is high praise, considering the Bears also have Keenan Allen in the mix.
The Williams-Odunze connection was on display in the Bears’ week two preseason game:2
Ja’Lynn Polk is expected to be one of the New England Patriots’ starting wide receivers come week one. Polk’s consistency has allowed him to be a trusted target for the team’s quarterbacks.
And to round out the trio of former Washington wideouts, Jalen McMillan of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers has been “balling out” according to one fan analyst:
Like Odunze and Polk, McMillan will see a lot of playing time and is expected to have an immediate impact. I’m dropping a few other updates on the other Washington draft picks in the footnotes.3
Who’s your favorite for NFL offensive and defensive rookie of the year? I’m liking Adonai Mitchell and Laiatu Latu on the Colts. - Baba O.
Caleb Williams is my favorite for OROY, he has so many weapons at WR, with Allen, Moore, and Odunze. Having D’Andre Swift in the backfield will also help take off some of the pressure on Williams (both figuratively and literally). If Williams won it, he’d join a group of four QBs that have won the award in the past ten years. Can you name them? (answer in the footnotes).4
As for DROY, the oddsmakers like Latu and Dallas Turner (Minnesota Vikings).5 I like the Seahawks’ draft pick, and the first defensive player drafted this year, Byron Murphy III out of Texas. As Brian’s preseason game takeaways made clear, Murphy is going to be a disrupter on defense. If his sack numbers are in the top ten of the league, he’s in contention as well for DROY.
When (not if) we get a new NBA team and the Sonics come home. Which current Seattle sports team loses viewers, ticket holders? -Justin F.
Elsner: This is a great question that involves many factors, including the changing landscape of Seattle’s income brackets. In 2008, when the Sonics left, the median income in Seattle was $66,465. If you account for inflation, that equates to $93,810 in 2023. However, the median income in Seattle in 2023 was actually $115,000. These numbers won’t surprise anyone who lives here. The city is getting more wealthy, pricing out more and more middle to working class, and stadium experiences are no different. But season tickets holders are the lifeblood of a sports franchise and Seattle is no different.
Overall, Seattle simply has enough people and enough wealth to support every major sports franchise. But someone will likely take a hit, even if it is not enough to cripple the franchise. As Justin mentioned to us in his question, here are the facts for attendance in Seattle:
Sounders - 3rd in MLS
Mariners - 15th in MLB, will draw over 2 million fans
Kraken - 100% capacity for the season
Reign - 10th in NWSL
Storm - 6th in WNBA
Seahawks - 100% capacity for the season
I don’t anticipate that a Sonics return would impact the Reign or Storm much. Both teams mostly play in seasons opposite the NBA and while there is some crossover fandom (hi!), there isn’t enough to impact numbers significantly.
The Seahawks seem unassailable as they have consistently sold out season tickets for years. Even when I was a kid and they were not good, it was hard to get Seahawks tickets. The NFL is a monster and I don’t see the Seahawks being impacted.
That leaves the Sounders, Kraken and Mariners. As someone who gave up Sounders season tickets recently, I might be biased. While the Sounders have a strong soccer community that really doesn’t care about other sports, there are a number of fans who jumped on Sounders tickets as the Sonics left. We allocated our sports dollars to the new and exciting team that isn’t so new or exciting anymore. I could see the Sounders dropping below 26,000 fans per match (over 30,000 currently).
The Kraken and the Mariners could also take a hit with the return of the Sonics, but their ticket struggles will also be linked to their lack of success. If the Kraken don’t return to the playoffs in 2024-25, I could see below 100% capacity in 2025-26 as people put their dollars in Sonics’ deposits. The Mariners could see less fans as well, but they will still draw enough as families and suckers flock to fireworks nights and the newest bobblehead while the team strikes out at historic rates.
When are the Sonics actually coming back? - Kea R.
Elsner: This is the question that we all think about at least once a day right? Kevin last updated us on this back in May. With the NBA media deal done, Adam Silver seemingly will look to expansion next. Most recently, Silver indicated that expansion talks will begin in the fall. However, there is one new development that needs to be complete before the expansion process can begin. One of the three most important NBA franchises is currently for sale and completing that sale is essential for expansion. As Bill Simmons pointed out on his podcast, the NBA will want the Boston Celtics deal to be complete in order to get a higher valuation for the new franchises. The estimation from Simmons is that the NBA will want the Celtics to sell for $6 billion. Yes, $6 billion. Then, each expansion team (hopefully Vegas and Seattle) also comes in at $6 billion or just below. Each NBA owner gets a slice of the new teams expansion fee, which would be around $400 million. Each.
With all this said, the NBA doesn’t want to wait for this to get done. I would guess the Celtics sale goes through by mid-October and expansion talks begin before the year. Optimistically, I am going to say Seattle gets the Sonics back for the 2026-27 season.
The M’s had a 91% chance to make the playoffs back in June. Now that probability is down to 20% and getting thinner. I know we want to see the Mariners in the playoffs. But do you think we will really be watching October baseball in Seattle? -Kyle S.
Cacabelos: We won’t be watching October baseball in Seattle, unless you enjoy watching other teams besides the Mariners. The team has essentially played themselves out of both the A.L. West race and the Wild Card race. As of writing, they now sit at 10% playoff odds and are 5.5 games back from the Astros. The Mariners need to go on a hot streak, and the Astros need to go on a cold streak. Maybe the team needs a new voice, and maybe Mariners legend Dan Wilson provides that voice as the team’s new manager, but Dan Wilson can’t hit for this team, and that’s what this team ultimately needs.
What happens first, Jedd Fisch wins a Big Ten title or leaves UW? - Greggor
Elsner: This is an easy one. Jedd Fisch will absolutely leave UW before winning a Big 10 title. I don’t say this with disdain or frustration; I say it as the most likely probability.
First, the landscape of college football is just different. Only the top tier college football programs will be able to keep their coaches who succeed. Look at what just happened with Kalen DeBoer.
Second, Jedd Fisch leaving could be the result of two different paths. He could be not very good and UW is looking for a new coach in about 3-4 years or he could be so successful that someone else grabs him for more money. But even if Fisch is that good, winning the Big Ten seems unlikely. The conference is stacked with Michigan, Penn State, Ohio State, USC and Oregon. Those five schools will consistently out-recruit UW no matter how good Fisch is at attracting talent. For those naysayers out there, did you know since 2016 either Penn State, Michigan or Ohio State has won the Big 10? That was before USC and Oregon joined.
Do any of the owners of Seattle sports teams give a s***? -Steve
Elsner: They give a s*** about making as much profit as possible. Or maybe I am just jaded by the Mariners. Your hometown baseball team led Major League Baseball in operating income in 2023 and is viewed as one of the most profitable franchises in the sport. Part of that profit comes from the fact that they spend like they don’t have millions of fans come to the park each year to get hot dogs flying from the sky. Imagine if the M’s spent like the Houston Astros (3rd highest payroll) or even the Texas Rangers (8th highest payroll).
The vibes are similar with the rave green right now. The Sounders are the first team in MLS history to not make a move in the summer transfer window three years in a row. Meanwhile, the Sounders transferred the cost of taxes onto their season ticket holders, outraging much of the fan base. With a team valuation of $785 million and over 30,000 fans attending each match, it seems like the Sounders are being a little too thrifty.
Fair or unfair, the one owner who seems like they care is Jody Allen. This is a bit ironic considering the prevailing thought was that she would sell quickly after Paul Allen’s death. Of course, comparing NFL teams to MLB and MLS is not apples to apples. First, the NFL has a salary cap so the outrage over adding salary won’t ever be the same. And second, there is no better business in American sports than the NFL. At the same time, Jody Allen seems to be the one who moved on from Pete Carroll and was willing to make the hard decision for the future of the Seahawks. Meanwhile, John Stanton is cooking up another bobblehead.
Troy Fautanu is recovering from a knee injury he sustained in the Pittsburgh Steelers opening preseason game. He plans to be ready for Week 1. Offensive tackle Roger Rosengarten is expected to start for the Baltimore Ravens. Unfortunately, outside linebacker Bralen Trice tore his ACL and was put on the IR list by the Atlanta Falcons. Edefuan Ulofoshio, a fifth-round pick is fighting for a roster spot on the Buffalo Bills. The same goes for Dom Hampton on the Washington Commanders. Early indications are that Devin Culp has been playing well in Tampa Bay, and he seems likely to make their roster.
CJ Stroud (2023-24), Justin Herbert (2020), Kyler Murray (2019), and Dak Prescott (2016).
Did you know Latu was part of Chris Peterson’s 2019 recruiting class at Washington that also included Puka Nacua (Los Angeles Rams), Trent McDuffie (Kansas City Chiefs), Bralen Trice (Atlanta Falcons), Troy Fautanu (Pittsburgh Steelers)?
Interesting that Buhner won a Gold Glove. I noticed that the Baseball Reference defensive rating absolutely hated him! His Gold Glove season of 1997 was his 7th straight with a negative rating. He certainly seems like the kind of guy who had the reputation for having a big arm, and I would assume that's what got him the award, but he also never had double-digit assists in a season.
The issue with his fielding may have been lack of speed. Six steals, 24 caught stealing in his career. Ouch.