SeaTown Sports Mailbag - Sonics Expansion Timeline, Mariners' Pitching Splits & Seahawks’ QB Plan
Answering Seattle sports questions: When will the Sonics return? Are the Mariners' pitchers really elite? What's next for the Seahawks at QB?
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From the never-ending Sonics expansion saga to the Mariners' pitching splits, Seahawks' offseason moves, and the Sounders’ future stadium plans, we cover a wide-variety of topics in this edition. As always, we’ve lightly edited questions for clarity and length. Let’s dive in.
When are the Sonics coming back!? -
What year the Sonics back? - @nordicsituation.bsky.social
Cacabelos: This question gets asked every iteration of our mailbag. And there’s a reason why. Every offseason, there seems to be a legitimate buzz from the league, local politicians, and local media. And then that buzz dies down. We answered this question last August and Brian guessed 2026-27. Since last August, there’s been some development.
The Boston Celtics’ sale finally went through last week. Bill Chisholm reportedly agreed to buy the franchise for $6.1 billion. ESPN reports that approval of the sale by the NBA’s Board of Governors “could come as soon as this summer.”
As a reminder, this domino needed to fall for expansion because it would essentially set up a higher value for any NBA expansion franchise. Also, Kraken owner Samantha Holloway is presumably clear to own an NBA franchise since her late father, David Bonderman, owned a share of the Celtics. The NBA stipulates that an owner can’t own a piece of two franchises.
So, with this domino soon to fall, presumably, expansion talks can begin. But remember that part about buzz dying down? Well, this past week, the NBA Board of Governors met, and Adam Silver told the media that the league is still “digesting” the Celtics transaction.
Silver further addressed Seattle fans directly:
I would just say again to our many fans in Seattle — and I hear from them often, the legacy of the Sonics is still very strong and it’s a fantastic basketball market — is that we are very focused on it. I think the fact that I’m sort of not being more forthcoming publicly doesn’t mean we’re not studying it very intensively.
He added:
We don’t take those fans for granted. We’re thankful that the interest has remained over all these years. And so I would just say the fact that we’re not ready to make any public announcements with a specific timeline doesn’t mean we don’t care a lot about those fans and are very focused on the potential for the NBA to return to Seattle.
With domestic expansion not being discussed at this latest NBA Board of Governors meeting (the NBA discussed European expansion), Tim Booth at the Seattle Times noted that the Board could meet in the summer, and if not, expansion talks may not start until September. Thus, according to Booth, 2028-29 would be the earliest target date for the addition of teams.
For now, we have to deal with Mayor Harrell making perhaps an ill-advised joke.
You talked on a recent podcast about how great Mariner pitching is. Is it really? What do the splits say about how our pitchers perform at home vs. away? -
Leary: It’s a yes and no situation, honestly. From 1 to 5, the Mariners rotation is absolutely one of the five best groups in the league. The weakest link in the group when everyone is healthy is arguably the most proven pitcher with the most big-game experience in Luis Castillo. The group rightfully earns plaudits as the dominant core of the MLB roster.
But to your point, the home/road splits tell an extreme story that make it essentially inarguable that T-Mobile Park, baseball’s most extreme stadium in 2024, helps the rotation in a major way. For example, Bryce Miller had a 1.96 ERA at home last year and a 4.07 ERA on the road. Every Mariners’ starter’s ERA was at least about 80 points higher on the road than at home. The thing T-Mobile REALLY helps the Mariners’ starters with is strikeouts. Seattle’s strikeout park factor is 15% above league average over the last three seasons, the most extreme by far. So the rotation is very good, but the park plays a significant role in improving the raw stats.
Do you think the Seahawks are going to rebuild and take a QB? Or is the team still trying to compete? -Michael
Cacabelos: Well, we received this question before a whole lot happened. While shedding salary and two of the most recongizable players in DK Metcalf and Geno Smith, neither of the moves was necessarily motivated by a desire to rebuild. Geno wanted more money than the Seahawks were willing to offer, and DK was no longer a fit with the team. Days after trading Geno, the Seahawks signed Sam Darnold to a three-year $100.5 million contract with a reported $37.5 million guaranteed. A rebuilding team doesn’t invest that much money in a quarterback. With that said, I’ve been vocal about the Seahawks taking a QB in the upcoming NFL draft, even if it’s just a flyer.
Who is the first LOB-era Seahawk to have their number retired/inducted into the ring of honor? When does that happen? -
Cacabelos: From that era, here’s who I think deserves to be in the ring of honor: Russell Wilson, Bobby Wagner, Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, Marshawn Lynch, and Kam Chancellor. Of these guys, only Wilson and Wagner are still active. That leaves us with Sherman, Thomas, Lynch, and Chancellor. Thomas’ career in Seattle memorably ended with him getting injured and flipping off Pete Carroll. He then struggled, especially with some off-the-field incidents. It will take some time for his legacy to settle. This leaves us with Sherman, Lynch, and Chancellor. Sherman retired in 2021, Lynch in 2019, and Chancellor in 2018. I have no other way to determine who comes first, but I guess that Lynch will be the first. He has kept a great relationship with the Seahawks organization, most recently by welcoming Mike Macdonald with some shoulder rubs last season. I’d also say Lynch is the most beloved by fans from the LOB-era. We ranked him at No. 21 in the SeaTown Sports Top 100.
Ranking the top 100 all-time Seattle professional athletes
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Rank the top three (in order) pro Seattle sports teams most likely to win a championship in the next 10 years. A theoretical SuperSonics expansion team may be considered. -
Cacabelos: This is a great question. Here’s my best shot:
Seattle Sounders FC: The Sounders had an incredible run from 2009 to 2022 where they made the MLS playoffs every season. They won two MLS cups under current head coach Brian Schmetzer in 2016 and 2019. The club also finished as runner-ups in 2017 and 2020. Given that Schmetzer is still the head coach and that the franchise has experienced success under him, it would not be right to have them at any spot other than No. 1.
Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks made it to the Super Bowl twice under the leadership of general manager John Schneider, and the franchise was almost able to pull off back-to-back Super Bowl wins. The Seahawks also made it in 2005. This is all evidence that this franchise is well-equipped to get to the promised land and has had success in doing so. I don’t know if this will happen while Sam Darnold is the quarterback, but the defense is getting back to becoming dominant.
Washington Huskies Football: Washington was just in the National Championship a little over a year ago. The program has the facilities, the fan base, and the institutional support to compete not only for a Big Ten Championship but also for a National Championship. It will always be difficult with Oregon, Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State in the conference, but an expanded College Football Playoff works in Washington’s favor, especially if the Big Ten starts to secure automatic bids” under a new playoff format.
Will the Reign continue to use Lumen Fild as their home stadium? Are there plans to build a soccer stadium/facility for use by the Sounders and Reign, or is it possible that the teams are planning to follow in Kansas City’s footsteps and build a women's soccer-only stadium? - DBE
Cacabelos: This is an interesting two-part question. The first answer is “for now.” The Reign will continue to use Lumen Field, because there are no desirable alternatives. Lumen Field works well for two reasons: (1) it’s easy to get to, and (2) it’s location provides a fun gameday atmosphere. There’s something to being in downtown Seattle. I don’t think another location could produce the same type of energy for fans. The second answer is “probably.” Adrian Hanauer, the majority owner of the Sounders and governor of the Reign, told reporters: “These soccer teams need a home, a home of their own, that feels, that smells like soccer 100% of the time.”
It’s doubtful that you’d get a women’s soccer-only stadium, and it's much more likely that the ownership groups of the clubs will work together to get a shared soccer-only stadium.
Hanauer confirmed in an interview that the Sounders were exploring the possibility of building a stadium on its “Longacres” parcel of land in Renton. Hanauer laid out the pros and cons in his interview with Sounder at Heart:
I’m certain if we build a stadium here that some fans wouldn’t like it and that it’s more inconvenient,” he said. “But it would be ours. It would be soccer-focused, intimate. It would allow the club to generate more revenue, which plays into spending money on players. It becomes a home for our fanbase. It’s connected to this facility. There are a lot of logistical benefits. There’s a train station 100 yards away. The ingress and egress is actually quite good. There are a lot of positives, but we will do a lot of research and talking to our fans to understand what the reaction would be to that.
So, in short, it’s possible, but the “when” is a big question. The Sounders have a lease with Lumen Field that runs through the 2032 season. Thus, between now and that 2032 season, a stadium would have to be built for and funded.
I’ve jokingly talked about the unique challenges of staying up for a game on the West Coast if you live in Eastern or Central time zones. Do day games at morning times throw y’all off similarly? -
Leary: Having done both, I definitely prefer a day game that starts at 10 a.m. to a night game that starts at 10 p.m. It was much harder to watch the Mariners day in and day out when every home game ended after midnight. I imagine the pitch clock has helped with that quite a bit, but I haven’t experienced that since moving home. Personally, I think the West Coast is the best timezone for sports. Sports that are on during the day are great. College football Saturdays from 9 a.m. to 11 p.m are elite.