Showdown at Husky Stadium: Washington Faces Familiar Foe USC
Preview, Key Matchups, and Prediction for USC vs. Washington at Husky Stadium – Can the Huskies Extend Their Home Winning Streak?
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USC vs. Washington
Date: Saturday - November 2, 2024, 4:30 p.m. PT
Location: Husky Stadium (Seattle, WA)
TV: Big Ten Network
USC Trojans Overview
Record: 4-4, 2-4 (Big Ten)
Last week: 42-20 win vs. Nebraska
Conference: Big Ten
Coach: Lincoln Riley
Key Players:
Miller Moss (Jr.) Quarterback - Moss leads the Trojans offense. He ranks No. 8 in the country with 25.38 completions per game, No. 11 in the country in passing yards (2,262), and No. 14 in passing yards per game (282.8). In USC’s 42-20 win over Rutgers, Moss went 20-for-28 for 308 yards and two touchdowns.
Woody Marks (RS Sr.) Running Back - Former Mississippi State teammate of Will Rogers, Woody Marks, is the focal point of the USC offense. Marks ran for a career-best three rushing touchdowns and also tallied 94 yards on 15 carries in his team’s win against Rutgers. He will likely see around 13 to 20 carries on the ground. Of note, in the past three games, Marks has the most explosive rushing plays (10+ yards or more) in the Big Ten with 12 explosive rushing plays. Marks is also a threat in the passing game. He’s averaging around 30 receiving yards per game.
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold (Sr.) - Like Marks, Mascarenas-Arnold is also a transfer (Oregon State). He has emerged as a leader on this improved Trojans defense. Against Rutgers, Mascarenas-Arnold led USC with 11 tackles. He has totaled double-digit tackles in three of the team’s last four games and leads the team in tackles with 67 on the season.
Injury News
USC
Safety Kamari Ramsey, cornerbacks Jaylin Smith, Jacobe Covington, and Greedy Vance all returned to practice this week after missing USC’s game against Rutgers.
Defensive lineman Nate Clifton “has a shot to go” after leaving the Rutgers game early with an injury.
Washington
Offensive lineman Maximus McCree remains out with a thumb injury.
Edge Zach Durfee is out with double turf toe.
Four Things to Know
The Trojans have underperformed this season. After losing to Minnesota on the road at the start of October, USC went from being ranked No. 11 to falling out of the AP poll completely. The Trojans then lost two close games against Penn State and Maryland, before finally breaking its three-game skid against Rutgers last week. The second-half and fourth-quarter collapses seem to be the boogeyman for USC, and head coach Lincoln Riley is receiving heat for his team’s disappointing campaign this season.
Matchup to watch: Washington’s defense vs. Woody Marks. While Marks is not a heavy workhorse like some of his Big Ten counterparts, he poses more of a dynamic threat in USC’s offense, offering production both in the rushing and passing game. And as mentioned above, Marks is also a threat to rip off an explosive rushing play. In short, the Huskies will have to find ways to limit Marks’ impact on offense.
One of the keys to Marks’ success is his offensive line who can create clean holes for Marks who is patient at letting a play develop (much like Jonah Coleman’s running style). Washington’s defensive line can help itself by at least trying to disrupt Marks’ rushes in between the tackles, this means defensive linemen Sebastian Valdez and Jacob Bandes will be key to stopping Marks.
Washington linebacker Carson Bruener has been a stud all season long. The Huskies will need him and Alphonzo Tuputala to make the second-level tackles on Marks and prevent him from ripping off explosive plays.
Washington’s home win streak is on the line. After falling out of CFP contention, I’ve readjusted my goals for this Husky team: keep home winning streak alive (now at 18 games), and get into a bowl game. Interestingly enough, USC has not played at Washington since 2019. This is head coach Lincoln Riley’s first game with USC in Husky Stadium.
USC leads the all-time series over Washington, 52-31-4. Last year’s matchup was an offensive party that the Huskies won 52-42. Most will remember quarterback Michael Penix’s beautiful scramble touchdown throw to tight end Devin Culp. Another fond memory in the all-time series for Husky fans is Washington’s 2009 upset over No. 3 ranked USC. A year after going 0-12, Washington upended the Pete Caroll-led Trojans at Husky Stadium. Some peg that as the turning point that got the program out of the gutter it had been in under the leadership of Keith Gilbertson and Tyrone Willingham.
Washington’s Keys to Victory
Key 1: Contain Woody Marks.
If I was Lincoln Riley, I would run the ball more than usual. The Trojans run the ball at a 37% rate, but the Huskies’ run defense has been less effective than its pass defense. Indiana, Iowa, and Rutgers all found success on offense by wearing Washington down through the run game. I’m especially weary of what Marks can do later in the game and the second half once Washington’s defense is tired.
Key 2: Avoid third-and-longs on offense.
The Huskies are atrocious on third downs, ranking No. 102 in the country, only getting first downs on 34.94% of its third-down plays. The Huskies offense and USC Trojans defense seem to be an even match. Washington will need to avoid avoidable penalties and get positive yardage on the first two downs to prevent itself from constantly having to get crucial third-down conversions.
Key 3: Make your kicks.
It would be great if the Washington offense didn’t stall in the red zone, but through eight games, it doesn’t seem like that problem is magically going to go away in the team’s last four games. This means that special teams performance, especially the performance of kicker Grady Gross is going to be important in this November stretch of games. Failing to get points on the board will be fatal to Washington’s hopes in this game, and perhaps fatal to the team’s efforts at getting into a bowl game. Gross has to make his kicks if called upon in this game.
Prediction
USC could very easily be 6-2, and maybe still ranked at this point of the season had its close games against Penn State and Maryland gone its way. Like UW, USC is winless on the road this season. Can they turn it around at Husky Stadium?
From Washington’s perspective, the team is reeling after getting beat up on the road against Iowa and Indiana. The team has not tasted success since its best win of the season against Michigan (which seems like such a long time ago now).
Because this is a home game for Washington and because its defense always plays a little better at home, I think Washington will win this one.
Spread: USC is favored by 2 points.
The Pick: Washington 30, USC 24
Week 10 Picks
2024 Record vs. the spread: 20-24
2024 Record, straight up: 33-13
Week 9 Record vs. the spread: 2-3
Week 9, straight up: 3-21
No. 4 Ohio State (6-1, 3-1) at No. 3 Penn State (7-0, 4-0) (Saturday at 9 a.m., FOX)
The spread: Ohio State is favored by three points
The pick: Ohio State 24, Penn State 20
No. 1 Oregon (8-0, 5-0) at Michigan (5-3, 3-2) (Saturday at 12:30 p.m., CBS/Paramount+)
The spread: Oregon is favored by 14.5 points.
The pick: Oregon 28, Michigan 13
UCLA (2-5, 1-4) at Nebraska (5-3, 2-3) (Saturday at 12:30 p.m., Big Ten Network)
The spread: Nebraska is favored by seven points.
The pick: Nebraska 31, UCLA 24
No. 18 Pittsburgh (7-0) at No. 20 SMU (7-1) (Saturday at 5 p.m., ACC Network)
The spread: SMU is favored by 7.5 points.
The pick: SMU 33, Pittsburgh 24
Minnesota (5-3, 3-2) at No. 24 Ilinois (6-2, 3-2) (Saturday at 9 a.m., FS1)
The spread: Minnesota is favored by three points.
The pick: Minnesota 27, Illinois 17
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Reader guest picker Gilbert went 2-3 against the spread, and 4-1 straight up last week.